Мобильная версия
Initially Israel was okay with the turkish safe zone as there was mutual threat of ISIS and al-Assad for both countries. Eventually, Israel become angry because rather than stabilizing all of Syria, they felt Turkey just was interested in a land grab getting them closer to their own borders. I would suggest it was stupid for Israel to believe Turkey would ever have an interest in do anything that risked their soldiers for the security of another nation, especially them considering the Gaza situation. Fast forward to the present. Some recent conflict is now stirring the pot again....
I only bring this up because the U.S. may be forced to make a shocking decision between two allies. I really don't think we should try to make a moral comparison because neither would probably make the cut from that perspective.
Right now, the U.S. has gained control of western hemisphere energy production and the routes for exportation. It's even courted Alberta and way prematurely got aggressive on Greenland. In Russia, Ukraine decimates their refineries and shadow fleet at will. And it appears we will either wait out the regime in Iran or completely take them offline if we get bored with it. Add in the fact we have a reasonable relationship with all other oil producers in the middle east. I know the softies in western societies might not like this, but their never has been or will be a nation that wouldn't take control of global energy if they were capable.
You would think China stands in the way, but they've been working so hard while being exploited for super low wages they apparently forgot to fuck and will age out as a threat all on their own. We just need to wait them out too.
Given this layout and the geography necessary to get energy to Europe, Turkey becomes a necessary player in the end game. They are also by far the most capable power in the area to control the waterway into Europe and cut transportation costs.
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Bringing this all back together, if conflict were to break out between Turkey and Israel, without intervention Turkey would wipe their ass with Israel. This brings us to a big decision. Should we intervene if this spat gets hot?
I say no simply because it's counterproductive to our long term goals. If Israel is going to make unpragmatic decisions like this one would be, we would only be kicking the can of their demise down the road at the expense of a potentially greater strategical alliance. Certainly Trump has ties to Israel, but he (or his advisors) seems hell bent on energy domination. Something will have to give...